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Economic growth has varied tremendously across regions of the United States over the past several decades. In this paper, I develop a dynamic quantitative spatial model to study the distributional implications of this uneven growth. The model incorporates two key mechanisms that link welfare to local economic conditions: migration costs and homeownership. Using the model, I show that uneven regional growth has important distributional consequences. On average, a 1% shock to local productivity raises residents’ welfare by 0.50%. The pass-through from local productivity shocks to welfare varies substantially across the age and wealth distribution. I find that homeownership plays a central role in spatial redistribution: in an otherwise similar model without homeownership, the average welfare effect of the same shock is just 0.19%. This is because house price changes counteract the welfare effects of wage changes for renters, but augment them for homeowners. Finally, I analyze the effects of two housing policy counterfactuals: relaxing land-use regulations and eliminating the mortgage interest deduction. Both policies mitigate spatial redistribution, but the link between welfare and local economic conditions remains strong.
Presenter(s)
Brian Greaney, University of Washington
Homeownership and the distributional effects of uneven regional growth