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Using supervisory data from large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), we document that operational loss recovery rates decrease in macroeconomic downturns. This procyclical relationship varies by business lines and loss event types and is robust to alternative data aggregations, macroeconomic measurement horizons, and estimation methodologies. Further analyses shows that resource constraints faced by BHC risk management functions is a plausible explanation for these patterns. Our findings offer new evidence on how economic shocks transmit to banking industry losses with implications for risk management and supervision.
Presenter(s)
Ping McLemore, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Non-Presenting Authors
W. Scott Frame, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Nika Lazaryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Atanas Mihov, University of Kansas
Operational Loss Recoveries and the Macroeconomic Environment: Evidence from the U.S. Banking Sector
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Organized Session Abstract Submission
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Session: [163] BANK RISK (IBEFA) Date: 7/4/2023 Time: 8:15 AM to 10:00 AM