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This paper evaluates how exposure to increased levels of Deaths-of-Despair (deaths from suicide, drug overdose, alcohol poisoning, and liver disease and cirrhosis) in a community impacts the outcomes in U.S. Presidential elections. Prior studies linked increasing political polarization and conservatism to economic trends such as income inequality, import competition, and financial crises. Controlling for these and other economic and demographic factors, exposure to Deaths-of-Despair maintains a positive and significant impact on the vote share of Republican (GOP) presidential candidates from 2004-2020. A standard deviation increase in this mortality rate led to an increase in the GOP vote share by 2.52 percentage points. When analyzing by earlier and later years, this impact is significant and larger in later years (2016-2020), compared to earlier (2004-2012). Stronger effects were noted in counties that the GOP candidate won in the previous election, and in counties with higher white population percentage. This paper provides evidence that gains in support for the GOP derive from health and social trends, not simply a response to economic changes.
Presenter(s)
Nicole Siegal, University of Hawaii
Deaths-of-Despair and U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes
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Session: [295] ECONOMICS OF CRIME: HISTORY, POLITICS, AND DRUGS Date: 7/6/2023 Time: 8:15 AM to 10:00 AM